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Posted On: 25/11/2009
The American housing market is doing very well at the moment, but analysts are saying it is too good to be true, doom-saying is the order of the day.
In October sales of existing US homes rose 10.1% to the highest level since February 2007. In the third quarter, US house prices were 0.2% higher than in the second quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) house price index -- taken from mortgage data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Not a huge increase but the first quarterly increase since 2007 and another step towards recovery according to some.
Others however, believe that a second dip is inevitable. Also in October, new home starts fell by 10.6% due to uncertainty over the end of the government's tax credit for homebuyers. This has now been extended to April next year but the damage may not be reversed.
Theoretically the reduced construction should reduce supply, but on the other side of the coin millions of Americans are still falling into mortgage difficulties.
The number of homes listed for sale was 3.63 million in September, down 15% from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors. That is enough to last about eight months at the current rate of sales. Anything above six months is considered a buyer's market, in which prices may come under downward pressure.
But those numbers don't reflect the millions of homes expected to go through foreclosure over the next few years, adding to supply. Amherst Securities Group in September estimated seven million homes are headed for foreclosure in the next few years -- more than a year's home sales at the current rate.
Truth be told the American housing market is too vast to measure as a whole, and should really only be looked at on a regional basis. However, looking nationally things may well stay moderately positive until April next year. That is when the real test begins.
The Federal Reserve is due to stop its program of buying mortgage-backed securities at the end of March, and then the government will stop the tax credit in April. This is therefore when the market will need to stand on its own 2 feet and it will be sink or swim time.
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